Research 2000 for Daily Kos (7/28-30, likely voters, 4/28-30 in parens):
Kay Hagan (D): 42 (41)
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 50 (48)
(MoE: ±4%)
Those are very similar numbers to the most recent PPP poll, which had Dole up by 49-40. Markos makes the case that the numbers could be a tad inflated for Dole:
Yeah, this one is a tossup. And it’s likely even better than this. According to the 2004 exit polls African Americans made up 26 percent of the North Carolina electorate. The sample size of this poll is 22 percent black, and does anyone think black turnout will be down this year? Didn’t think so…
It’s worth noting that PPP used an even smaller sample of black voters in their poll, at 20%. PPP has also highlighted the African-American vote as one area where Dole overperforms other Republicans; in their poll, Hagan leads by 63-25 among black voters. However, this most recent R2K survey paints a much different picture, with blacks breaking for Hagan by an 81-7 margin. Conversely, R2K finds that Dole leads by 68-27 among white voters, while PPP pegs her lead at a tighter 55-35 among the group.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.
UPDATE: Tom Jensen over at PPP has debunked the 2004 exit poll composition here and here. (H/T: Political Realm)
says the exit poll data was inflated. He reports A-A turnout at 18.5% of the electorate in North Carolina in 2004.
More here http://publicpolicypolling.blo…
and here http://publicpolicypolling.blo…
I’m not sure PPP’s calculations are correct. I just checked the state board of election website. Turnout for the 2004 race is pitted at 66% for whites, 59% for blacks and about 65% for Hispanics.
Using the racial breakdown of the 2007 census estimate (which is 70% white, 25% black), we get to the number of 23% for the proportion of black voters in the 2004 election. Not 18.5%. If Obama is indeed succeeding at increasing black turnout, that could be even higher.
Campaign Diaries
Another website pits the racial breakdown of the state at 74-21, which would obviously change calculations. Anyone have an idea of the answer here?
is a crutch that we’re relying on too much in these races. Clearly Hagan is down and that’s no surprise. She can win with hard work, but I don’t think we get far in saying (in North Carolina, and Mississippi, and Georgia, and elsewhere) that our candidates are really ahead because all the polls under-sample black voters and underestimate how big the Dems are going to win among black voters.
Here are some stats form the NC State Board of Elections website. Note that this is for registered voters, not likely voters, voting age population, or census data:
http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.u…
As of 7/26/08
DEM: 45.3%
REP: 33.0%
UNA: 21.7%
White: 75.1%
Black: 20.8%
Hisp: 0.9%
Amer Ind: 0.8%
Other: 1.6%
There have been 270,483 new voters added to the rolls in 2008 – a 4.8% increase. This number includes:
DEM: 150,600
UNA: 102,704
REP: 17,179
White: 143,073
Black: 91,948
Other: 35,462
Percentage increases during 2008:
Total: 4.8%
UNA: 8.8%
DEM: 6.0%
REP: 0.9%
Black: 8.2%
Hispanic: 26.6%
Amer Ind: 6.7%
White: 3.4%
Other: 45.9%
-Democrats have gone from a 10.5% margin by registration over Republicans in January to a 12.3% margin now.
The nonwhite portion of voter registration has gone from 23.8% in January to 24.9% now.It will be interesting to see how much this move changes the polls – $400K in ads over the next 11 days:
http://www.wral.com/news/state…